August 20th, 2009

Probability puzzle redux

I've really enjoyed watching people noodle on the probability puzzle I posted earlier. One of the things I like about it is that even for mathematically literate people, the answer that they find intuitively is usually wrong. Mine was. I've seen a lot of really smart people get this one wrong, though they usually get to the right answer eventually.

If you want to noodle on it yourself, but are finding it too hard, here's a non-spoiler hint.
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