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Subject:Poker poll followup
Time:03:37 am
I recently posted two polls about this hand:

Synopsis: you 3-bet red aces from the button in the limit holdem round of a HORSE tournament. Your opponent then goes limp, check-calling the flop and turn. On the river, the board is 7s Jh 9s 3h Td. It's checked to you.

The thing that strikes me most about this hand is that my opponent capped the betting out-of-position before the flop, and then went limp-- he check-called to the river. I asked what hands he might do this with. The results of the poll:

AA: 16%
KK: 16%
QQ: 26%
JJ: 13%
TT: 48%
99: 16%
88: 35%
77: 13%
smaller pairs: 32%
AK: 77%
AQ: 61%
AJ: 13%
KQ: 32%
some other hands: 29%

Some of these answers just don't make sense to me. If I assume that my opponent is at least a little bit rational, he's going to put in a bet at some point with AA, KK, QQ, JJ, and AJ. To me, check-call mode means one of two things-- a decently strong but possibly beat hand, or a monster that you're trying to trap with. AA, KK, and QQ are certainly going to put in a bet or raise at some point. I think smaller pairs will scamper away by the turn.

Given the way the hand played out, the candidate hands seem to be AK, AQ, TT, or maybe 88. He could also have flopped a set and is hoping to get me on the river, but slows down when the fourth straight card comes. Of those hand, the only ones I'm ahead of are AK and AQ. Do they pay me off? Sometimes, but far from always.

What hands check raise me? TT and 88, and maybe a few other sets. I don't think I get check raised by anything that I'm ahead of.

Basically, I think the hand comes down to hoping my opponent has AK or AQ. I might have considered a bet over the table, where I had body language to guide me, and I might have considered it in a cash game with linear-value chips. In this situation, it felt wrong to me.

So my analysis comes down to this: I don't think AK and AQ pay me off often enough to make it worth stepping in a mine against the other hands. The only caveat I'll put on this analysis is that I haven't played much limit holdem in the last several years, so my limit analytical skills are rusty. And yes, I might be out of touch with what a typical limit player would do.


By the way, I'm amused that only five of you thought that KK and QQ cap then go limp, but 14 of you include KK and QQ in "What hands play this way, then pay you off if you bet?"
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freelikebeer
Link:(Link)
Time:2009-07-03 12:51 pm (UTC)
But what actually haaaaaaapened? Results oriented people want to know.
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whipartist
Link:(Link)
Time:2009-07-03 05:26 pm (UTC)
I checked behind, he had AK. A friend reamed me for the check.
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dmorr
Link:(Link)
Time:2009-07-03 03:51 pm (UTC)
I think you need some baseline chance of the guy being a hoser. So like there's some chance of ATs and JTs and T9s and so in his distribution. Some of these will of course beat you, but some of them will pay you off.

I guess that's what the other hands bucket is for, but there are hands you beat other than AK or AQ.
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abostick59
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Time:2009-07-03 05:05 pm (UTC)
By the way, I'm amused that only five of you thought that KK and QQ cap then go limp, but 14 of you include KK and QQ in "What hands play this way, then pay you off if you bet?"

I believe my original phrasing was "I'm deeply amused ..."
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prock
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Time:2009-07-03 06:05 pm (UTC)
So my analysis comes down to this: I don't think AK and AQ pay me off often enough to make it worth stepping in a mine against the other hands.

This isn't an analysis. This is an off the cuff remark.
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filthy_habit
Link:(Link)
Time:2009-07-04 12:09 am (UTC)
By the way, I'm amused that only five of you thought that KK and QQ cap then go limp, but 14 of you include KK and QQ in "What hands play this way, then pay you off if you bet?"

Yeah, I'm probably one of those people! One thing I hate to do is ponder such details because I generally process a lot more information when I'm sitting in the chair. And, honestly, I think I've completely forgotten how to play limit holdem (as if I ever even knew how...).

Edited at 2009-07-04 12:09 am (UTC)
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[icon] Poker poll followup - Patti
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